I think we can probably do more now than most people think—or at least we could if we had prepared better. But no, this is not what ‘open fire hose’ looks like. Frankly I’m not sure I’ve ever seen an open fire hose moment (in the US) in my lifetime. In 2008 the economists were saying how many times bigger the stimulus needed to be, and we didn’t do it, and slogged through a decade-long slow recovery. In 2020 we removed some but not all of the restrictions slowing down covid vaccine development and definitely didn’t make what would have been some relatively low-cost low-risk high-impact moves, and made no moves to change policy in obvious good ways moving forward.
An open fire hose moment, at least to me, looks like the market crash in 1929 (3.5 years(!) before the new deal), Poland in 1939, Pearl Harbor in 1942, or maybe Sputnik in 1957. Right now (if my quick estimation is even close) private investment in AI in one year is larger in inflation adjusted terms, both in dollars and as a % of GDP, than the entire Apollo program was. IMO a firehose moment would at minimum include recognizing that the risks are at least USSR-level and deserve being willing to mobilize at Cold War scale in response for as long as it takes.
But if I’m wrong, and there is an open firehose moment now, then there’s a lot of things we should and in principle could immediately do. Top of mind:
Lock down chip exports much tighter—net negative cost, direct economic benefits to the US
Provide extensive support to AI labs to beef up their physical security and cybersecurity
Create a dedicated civilian regulatory agency with the authority to (dual mandate!) promote the safe advancement of AI
Implement large scale infrastructure upgrades—physical and digital grid hardening, renewable energy production, large scale widespread energy storage, water treatment and water recycling capacity. This may not sound like an AI measure, but resilience against shocks is always valuable in a crisis, many types of attacks or disasters are possible and these are good on the merits even if no specific AI-driven crisis occurs. Trillions of dollars needed, minimum
Implement tight controls in biotech to ensure labs that make DNA/RNA/proteins/etc. are screening all orders for dangerous substances or evidence of nefarious intent (with humans and with the best existing AI)
Implement society-wide preparedness measures against future (engineered or natural) pandemic threats—air filtration, UVC, PPE stockpiles, vaccine production capacity, FDA (or local equivalent) reforms
Reform land use and energy market regulations nationwide to make building infrastructure (and industrial capacity, and housing, why not) faster, cheaper, and smoother—keep more data centers domestic, and encourage using AI investment to simultaneously make US energy and water systems cleaner and more modern and better—this also cushions against the ‘bubble’ narrative because these kinds of projects have value with or without AI if you do them right
Encourage development and deployment of robotics for civilian benefit
Educate the public about how the economy even works, including why automation can and should be net beneficial with the right systems in place
I think we can probably do more now than most people think—or at least we could if we had prepared better. But no, this is not what ‘open fire hose’ looks like. Frankly I’m not sure I’ve ever seen an open fire hose moment (in the US) in my lifetime. In 2008 the economists were saying how many times bigger the stimulus needed to be, and we didn’t do it, and slogged through a decade-long slow recovery. In 2020 we removed some but not all of the restrictions slowing down covid vaccine development and definitely didn’t make what would have been some relatively low-cost low-risk high-impact moves, and made no moves to change policy in obvious good ways moving forward.
An open fire hose moment, at least to me, looks like the market crash in 1929 (3.5 years(!) before the new deal), Poland in 1939, Pearl Harbor in 1942, or maybe Sputnik in 1957. Right now (if my quick estimation is even close) private investment in AI in one year is larger in inflation adjusted terms, both in dollars and as a % of GDP, than the entire Apollo program was. IMO a firehose moment would at minimum include recognizing that the risks are at least USSR-level and deserve being willing to mobilize at Cold War scale in response for as long as it takes.
But if I’m wrong, and there is an open firehose moment now, then there’s a lot of things we should and in principle could immediately do. Top of mind:
Lock down chip exports much tighter—net negative cost, direct economic benefits to the US
Provide extensive support to AI labs to beef up their physical security and cybersecurity
Create a dedicated civilian regulatory agency with the authority to (dual mandate!) promote the safe advancement of AI
Implement large scale infrastructure upgrades—physical and digital grid hardening, renewable energy production, large scale widespread energy storage, water treatment and water recycling capacity. This may not sound like an AI measure, but resilience against shocks is always valuable in a crisis, many types of attacks or disasters are possible and these are good on the merits even if no specific AI-driven crisis occurs. Trillions of dollars needed, minimum
Implement tight controls in biotech to ensure labs that make DNA/RNA/proteins/etc. are screening all orders for dangerous substances or evidence of nefarious intent (with humans and with the best existing AI)
Implement society-wide preparedness measures against future (engineered or natural) pandemic threats—air filtration, UVC, PPE stockpiles, vaccine production capacity, FDA (or local equivalent) reforms
Reform land use and energy market regulations nationwide to make building infrastructure (and industrial capacity, and housing, why not) faster, cheaper, and smoother—keep more data centers domestic, and encourage using AI investment to simultaneously make US energy and water systems cleaner and more modern and better—this also cushions against the ‘bubble’ narrative because these kinds of projects have value with or without AI if you do them right
Encourage development and deployment of robotics for civilian benefit
Educate the public about how the economy even works, including why automation can and should be net beneficial with the right systems in place