There’s a new Metaculus question on this. The median for near human-level on the exact set of forecasting questions we used is currently 2026. Another relevant question is how well AI will vs crowdforecasts when predicting new questions (e.g. 2023-2024 questions). I’d be excited for people to do more thinking about how much AI will improve at forecasting in coming years.
There’s a new Metaculus question on this. The median for near human-level on the exact set of forecasting questions we used is currently 2026. Another relevant question is how well AI will vs crowdforecasts when predicting new questions (e.g. 2023-2024 questions). I’d be excited for people to do more thinking about how much AI will improve at forecasting in coming years.