The crux is AIs capable at around human level, aligned in the way humans are aligned. If prosaic alignment only works for insufficiently capable AIs (not capable of RSI or scalable oversight), and breaks down for sufficiently capable AIs, then prosaic alignment doesn’t help (with navigating RSI or scalable oversight). As AIs get more capable and still can get aligned with contemporary methods, the hypothesis that this won’t work weakens. Maybe it does work.
There are many problems even with prosaically aligned human level AIs, plausibly lethal enough on their own, but that is a distinction that importantly changes what kinds of further plans have a chance to do anything. So the observations worth updating on are not just that prosaic alignment keeps working, but that it keeps working for increasingly capable AIs, closer to being relevant for helping humanity do its alignment homework.
Plausibly AIs are insufficiently capable yet to give any evidence on this, and it’ll remain too early to tell all the way until it’s too late to make any use of the update. Maybe Anthropic’s RSP could be thought of as sketching a policy for responding to such observations, when AIs become capable enough for meaningful updates on feasibility of scalable oversight to become accessible, hitting the brakes safely and responsibly a few centimeters from the edge of a cliff.
The crux is AIs capable at around human level, aligned in the way humans are aligned. If prosaic alignment only works for insufficiently capable AIs (not capable of RSI or scalable oversight), and breaks down for sufficiently capable AIs, then prosaic alignment doesn’t help (with navigating RSI or scalable oversight). As AIs get more capable and still can get aligned with contemporary methods, the hypothesis that this won’t work weakens. Maybe it does work.
There are many problems even with prosaically aligned human level AIs, plausibly lethal enough on their own, but that is a distinction that importantly changes what kinds of further plans have a chance to do anything. So the observations worth updating on are not just that prosaic alignment keeps working, but that it keeps working for increasingly capable AIs, closer to being relevant for helping humanity do its alignment homework.
Plausibly AIs are insufficiently capable yet to give any evidence on this, and it’ll remain too early to tell all the way until it’s too late to make any use of the update. Maybe Anthropic’s RSP could be thought of as sketching a policy for responding to such observations, when AIs become capable enough for meaningful updates on feasibility of scalable oversight to become accessible, hitting the brakes safely and responsibly a few centimeters from the edge of a cliff.