Confidence is a state of mind. It is critical from the standpoint of motivation. Without confidence we would be paralyzed into inaction; we would be unable to turn decisions into structured consequences. We would be constantly “scoping the game plan” and never playing. However, confidence should not play a major role in making decisions. Cold rationality is key in two aspects of the decision process: (a) how important is the decision? (b) if the decision is important, what is the “outside view” ? (per Kahneman) The first decision, IMO, should be handled with an algorithm analogous to triage and requires ascertaining sufficient basic facts to determine what, in fact, is the decision that needs to be made and how long can the decision be deferred. In other words, part of the algorithm might be answering the question, ‘what happens if we do nothing?’ If the decision appears essentially trivial (i.e., should I buy a new chair and, if yes, should I buy the red chair or the blue), you don’t need to get to (b). If a decision is important, you need to use cold rationality.
If I am dealing with a situation where the decision has already been made, I may be able to use learned skills and experience to determine how to act. Then the key question from the standpoint of confidence is whether the situation falls within the scope of my expertise, where I can be confident that my trained ‘gut reaction’ will be an appropriate response. If it is outside my area of expertise, I have no reason to be confident—although I may act like I am confident if success depends upon others trusting my abilities.
Regardless of how I may need to appear to others, I would never try to kid myself about my abilities. What may be missing in the above question—Should I believe hard that I can accomplish X regardless of the likelihood of success—are the foundational questions: Do I really have to try to accomplish X? Is there a reasonable alternative method that is more likely to be successful? Is there a reasonable alternative outcome Y that will give me the benefits I need from X with a greater chance of success. If the answers are Yes, No, No—then you have to believe in order to win, so throw the “Hail Mary” with total confidence.
Confidence is a state of mind. It is critical from the standpoint of motivation. Without confidence we would be paralyzed into inaction; we would be unable to turn decisions into structured consequences. We would be constantly “scoping the game plan” and never playing. However, confidence should not play a major role in making decisions. Cold rationality is key in two aspects of the decision process: (a) how important is the decision? (b) if the decision is important, what is the “outside view” ? (per Kahneman) The first decision, IMO, should be handled with an algorithm analogous to triage and requires ascertaining sufficient basic facts to determine what, in fact, is the decision that needs to be made and how long can the decision be deferred. In other words, part of the algorithm might be answering the question, ‘what happens if we do nothing?’ If the decision appears essentially trivial (i.e., should I buy a new chair and, if yes, should I buy the red chair or the blue), you don’t need to get to (b). If a decision is important, you need to use cold rationality.
If I am dealing with a situation where the decision has already been made, I may be able to use learned skills and experience to determine how to act. Then the key question from the standpoint of confidence is whether the situation falls within the scope of my expertise, where I can be confident that my trained ‘gut reaction’ will be an appropriate response. If it is outside my area of expertise, I have no reason to be confident—although I may act like I am confident if success depends upon others trusting my abilities.
Regardless of how I may need to appear to others, I would never try to kid myself about my abilities. What may be missing in the above question—Should I believe hard that I can accomplish X regardless of the likelihood of success—are the foundational questions: Do I really have to try to accomplish X? Is there a reasonable alternative method that is more likely to be successful? Is there a reasonable alternative outcome Y that will give me the benefits I need from X with a greater chance of success. If the answers are Yes, No, No—then you have to believe in order to win, so throw the “Hail Mary” with total confidence.