I really don’t know the probability of a person saying hello to a stranger who said hello to them. It depends on too many factors
I’m not asking for the probability. I’m asking for your probability—the confidence you have that the event will occur. If you have very little confidence one way or the other, that doesn’t mean you assign no probability to it; it means you assign ~50% probability to it.
Everything in life depends on too many factors. If you couldn’t make predictions or decisions under uncertainty, then you wouldn’t even be able to cross the street. Fortunately, a lot of those factors cancel out or are extremely unlikely, which means that in many cases (including this one) we can make approximately reliable predictions using only a few pieces of information.
but if there were not a time constraint, I think Deep Blue’s moves would be almost 100% predictable.
Without a time constraint, the same may be true for the girl (especially if cryonics is feasible), since given enough time we’d be able to scan her brain and run thousands of simulations of what she’d do in this scenario. If you’re averse to unlikely hypotheticals, then you should be averse to removing realistic constraints.
I’m not asking for the probability. I’m asking for your probability—the confidence you have that the event will occur. If you have very little confidence one way or the other, that doesn’t mean you assign no probability to it; it means you assign ~50% probability to it.
Everything in life depends on too many factors. If you couldn’t make predictions or decisions under uncertainty, then you wouldn’t even be able to cross the street. Fortunately, a lot of those factors cancel out or are extremely unlikely, which means that in many cases (including this one) we can make approximately reliable predictions using only a few pieces of information.
Without a time constraint, the same may be true for the girl (especially if cryonics is feasible), since given enough time we’d be able to scan her brain and run thousands of simulations of what she’d do in this scenario. If you’re averse to unlikely hypotheticals, then you should be averse to removing realistic constraints.