Depends on what odds you’re talking about. If you’re talking about the odds of a Boltzmann brain popping into existence at any particular instant, then yes, the probability is absurdly low. If you’re talking about a Boltzmann brain existing at some point in the universe, then I don’t think the odds are all that small. It’s the latter probability that’s relevant to the kinds of issues Page cares about.
Depends on what odds you’re talking about. If you’re talking about the odds of a Boltzmann brain popping into existence at any particular instant, then yes, the probability is absurdly low. If you’re talking about a Boltzmann brain existing at some point in the universe, then I don’t think the odds are all that small. It’s the latter probability that’s relevant to the kinds of issues Page cares about.