For a consequentialist this is a question for historians and those who model historical what-ifs (psycho-historians? Hari Seldon, where are you?)
There are multiple possibilities that I can think of offhand:
a revolution/regime change/instability may have some negative or positive effect in the near term, but no measurable long-term effect anywhere
there are some long-term positive/negative effects locally, but none globally
there are both local and global effects, positive and/or negative
A historical analysis can only get you so far, as it is hard to come up with controlled examples. Was the US revolution similar to the French revolution? To the Russian revolution? To the Spartacus’ uprising? To the Chinese dynastic revolts?
Would the US have been better off peacefully separating from Great Britain like Australia and Canada? Did the horrors of the World War II scare Europe into peace? Was the Holocaust a net good for the Jews, since it led to creation of Israel and the rise of Jewish influence in the US and in the world? (Assuming either of those are beneficial. Most Arabs would disagree.)
Even the seemingly clear-cut “good” cases, like the end of the Apartheid in South Africa eventually resulted in rising crime rates in the country.
To misquote a famous historian, “History is just one damned thing after another”.
My current position on the issue is that any uprising is only worth considering if you can reasonably expect near-term positive effects for the group you care about, because there is currently no way to estimate long-term effects, and you cannot hope to be honest about the welfare of people you don’t care about.
This position is an awkward one, since it means that Hitler’s takeover of Germany was worth supporting at the time it happened, unless you cared about Jews, Gypsies and gays more than about ethnic Germans. It also means being against most armed revolts of uncertain prospects of success, since they necessarily lead to near-term increase in suffering.
For a consequentialist this is a question for historians and those who model historical what-ifs (psycho-historians? Hari Seldon, where are you?)
There are multiple possibilities that I can think of offhand:
a revolution/regime change/instability may have some negative or positive effect in the near term, but no measurable long-term effect anywhere
there are some long-term positive/negative effects locally, but none globally
there are both local and global effects, positive and/or negative
A historical analysis can only get you so far, as it is hard to come up with controlled examples. Was the US revolution similar to the French revolution? To the Russian revolution? To the Spartacus’ uprising? To the Chinese dynastic revolts?
Would the US have been better off peacefully separating from Great Britain like Australia and Canada? Did the horrors of the World War II scare Europe into peace? Was the Holocaust a net good for the Jews, since it led to creation of Israel and the rise of Jewish influence in the US and in the world? (Assuming either of those are beneficial. Most Arabs would disagree.)
Even the seemingly clear-cut “good” cases, like the end of the Apartheid in South Africa eventually resulted in rising crime rates in the country.
To misquote a famous historian, “History is just one damned thing after another”.
My current position on the issue is that any uprising is only worth considering if you can reasonably expect near-term positive effects for the group you care about, because there is currently no way to estimate long-term effects, and you cannot hope to be honest about the welfare of people you don’t care about.
This position is an awkward one, since it means that Hitler’s takeover of Germany was worth supporting at the time it happened, unless you cared about Jews, Gypsies and gays more than about ethnic Germans. It also means being against most armed revolts of uncertain prospects of success, since they necessarily lead to near-term increase in suffering.