The DA, in it’s SSA form (where it is rigorous) comes as a posterior adjustment to all probabilities computed in the way above—it’s not an argument that doom is likely, just that doom is more likely than objective odds would imply, in a precise way that depends on future (and past) population size.
However my post shows that the SSA form does not apply to the question that people generally ask, so the DA is wrong.
The DA, in it’s SSA form (where it is rigorous) comes as a posterior adjustment to all probabilities computed in the way above—it’s not an argument that doom is likely, just that doom is more likely than objective odds would imply, in a precise way that depends on future (and past) population size.
However my post shows that the SSA form does not apply to the question that people generally ask, so the DA is wrong.