Lets say you do not know your birth rank at first. Then someone asks you to guess whether the universe is around 200 billion or some very large number. Without any additional data you should estimate 50% for either one. Then you get to know that your birth rank is around 100 billion. Do you not then update, that smaller universe have bigger than 50% chance estimated previously?
Again, we have to be clear about the question. But if it’s “what proportions of versions of me are likely to be in a large universe”, then the answer is close to 1 (which is the SIA odds). Then you update on your birthrank, notice, to your great surprise, that it is sufficiently low to exist in both large and small universes, so update towards small and end up at 50:50.
So what you are saying, is, before one knows his birth rank, one should assume infinite universe? This does actually corresponds to evidence about universe size, but not about human population size.
Again, it’s what question you’re asking. “If a copy of me existed, would it be more likely to exist in small universe or in an infinite one” has a pretty clear answer :-)
Lets say you do not know your birth rank at first. Then someone asks you to guess whether the universe is around 200 billion or some very large number. Without any additional data you should estimate 50% for either one. Then you get to know that your birth rank is around 100 billion. Do you not then update, that smaller universe have bigger than 50% chance estimated previously?
Again, we have to be clear about the question. But if it’s “what proportions of versions of me are likely to be in a large universe”, then the answer is close to 1 (which is the SIA odds). Then you update on your birthrank, notice, to your great surprise, that it is sufficiently low to exist in both large and small universes, so update towards small and end up at 50:50.
So what you are saying, is, before one knows his birth rank, one should assume infinite universe? This does actually corresponds to evidence about universe size, but not about human population size.
Again, it’s what question you’re asking. “If a copy of me existed, would it be more likely to exist in small universe or in an infinite one” has a pretty clear answer :-)