For the record, I’m not arguing against a land value tax in general. I actually think an LVT is reasonable idea if you can actually figure out how to determine land value. I just think this particular argument for an LVT has in incorrect premise, and the links used to support it don’t actually support it.
I think the two cruxes of our disagreement are, first that I think you are saying that you know why homes are vacant. These two quotes claim that houses are being left vacant for speculation:
At the same time, vast brownfield sites which could be developed are left unused and many of the properties that are built are simply left empty, and held as a speculative investment.
And here:
Landlords may be unproductive, but at least they allow people to live and work on the land they own. Some land owners do not even rent out their land: they simply sit on it and wait for the price to increase. This behaviour is known as speculation and as a result, there are almost 700,000 empty homes throughout the UK, and over 150 million square feet of unused retail space.
Second, I think the reason matters. If the houses are being held vacant for a reason other than speculation, in undermines the argument for why an LVT would change that. An LVT would affect the vacancy rate if (1) it incentivizes people to rent out more houses and (2) it’s possible to rent out more houses.
I think (1) is not a meaningful difference given that investors are already strongly incentivized to rent out properties they own (they get rent!), and I think (2) is mostly wrong and most of the empty houses are empty because remodeling, sales, and finding renters takes time (around 2/3rds of these houses are empty for less than 6 months) or because no one wants them (the houses are in the wrong place or not liveable).
This article summarizes the important data points here. Among other things, note that long-term vacancy rate in London is 0.4%, compared to 2.7% for England as a whole, and that the number of vacant properties has been doing down over time.
Regarding your comments, I don’t think vacation property owners are relevant here since I’m disputing your claim around land held for speculation, and vacation properties are held for their owners’ use. This effects the incentives since vacation property owners are already forgoing rent which is worth more than any plausible LVT (although an LVT might push some of them over the edge to rent/sell).
In short, I don’t dispute the existence of empty homes; I dispute that they’re empty for the reasons you claim, and as a result, I don’t think an LVT will meaningfully convert those into useable houses.
I expect that your next response will be something like “yes, but a not-literally-zero amount of houses will convert from vacant to not-vacant with an LVT”, and I agree that the number will probably not be literally-zero, but I think that number will not be meaningful, and that this isn’t a free win with no downsides.
Among other reasons, it’s important to realize that the real business a lot of house builders are in is land speculation (even better than waiting for someone else to develop your empty land is just doing it yourself), so it’s unclear if destroying that business would help or hurt housing supply. There’s also the political angle, that “housing shortages are caused by landlords” is used by NIMBYs to redirect away from real solutions (building more housing), so repeating their untrue claims in service of a minor win is counterproductive.
For the record, I’m not arguing against a land value tax in general. I actually think an LVT is reasonable idea if you can actually figure out how to determine land value. I just think this particular argument for an LVT has in incorrect premise, and the links used to support it don’t actually support it.
I think the two cruxes of our disagreement are, first that I think you are saying that you know why homes are vacant. These two quotes claim that houses are being left vacant for speculation:
And here:
Second, I think the reason matters. If the houses are being held vacant for a reason other than speculation, in undermines the argument for why an LVT would change that. An LVT would affect the vacancy rate if (1) it incentivizes people to rent out more houses and (2) it’s possible to rent out more houses.
I think (1) is not a meaningful difference given that investors are already strongly incentivized to rent out properties they own (they get rent!), and I think (2) is mostly wrong and most of the empty houses are empty because remodeling, sales, and finding renters takes time (around 2/3rds of these houses are empty for less than 6 months) or because no one wants them (the houses are in the wrong place or not liveable).
This article summarizes the important data points here. Among other things, note that long-term vacancy rate in London is 0.4%, compared to 2.7% for England as a whole, and that the number of vacant properties has been doing down over time.
Regarding your comments, I don’t think vacation property owners are relevant here since I’m disputing your claim around land held for speculation, and vacation properties are held for their owners’ use. This effects the incentives since vacation property owners are already forgoing rent which is worth more than any plausible LVT (although an LVT might push some of them over the edge to rent/sell).
In short, I don’t dispute the existence of empty homes; I dispute that they’re empty for the reasons you claim, and as a result, I don’t think an LVT will meaningfully convert those into useable houses.
I expect that your next response will be something like “yes, but a not-literally-zero amount of houses will convert from vacant to not-vacant with an LVT”, and I agree that the number will probably not be literally-zero, but I think that number will not be meaningful, and that this isn’t a free win with no downsides.
Among other reasons, it’s important to realize that the real business a lot of house builders are in is land speculation (even better than waiting for someone else to develop your empty land is just doing it yourself), so it’s unclear if destroying that business would help or hurt housing supply. There’s also the political angle, that “housing shortages are caused by landlords” is used by NIMBYs to redirect away from real solutions (building more housing), so repeating their untrue claims in service of a minor win is counterproductive.
Thanks for this comment-it explains your view very clearly and I understand what you are getting at now.
I think its a fair criticism. I’ve added footnotes within the post, linking people to your comment.