Okay, I think the gradual point is a good one and also that it very much helps our institutions to be able to deal with increased intelligence.
I would be curious what you think about the idea of more permanent economic rifts and also the general economics of gene editing? Might it be smart to make it a public good instead?
Maybe there’s something here about IQ being hereditary already and thus the point about a more permanent two caste society with smart and stupid people is redundant but somehow I still feel that the economics of private gene editing over long periods of time feels a bit off?
I would be curious what you think about the idea of more permanent economic rifts and also the general economics of gene editing?
As a matter of science and technology, reprogenetics should be inexpensive. I’ve analyzed this area quite a bit (though not focused specifically on eventual cost), see https://berkeleygenomics.org/articles/Methods_for_strong_human_germline_engineering.html . My fairly strong guess is that it’s perfectly feasible to have strong reprogenetics that’s pretty inexpensive (on the order of $5k to $25k for a pretty strongly genomically vectored zygote). From a tech and science perspective, I think I see multiple somewhat-disjunctive ways, each of which is pretty plausibly feasible, and each of which doesn’t seem to have any inputs that can’t be made inexpensive.
(As a comparison point, IVF is expensive—something like $8k to $20k—but my guess is that this is largely because of things like regulatory restrictions (needing an MD to supervise egg retrieval, even though NPs can do it well), drug price lock-in (the drugs are easy to manufacture, so are available cheaply on gray markets), and simply economic friction/overhang (CNY is cheaper basically by deciding to be cheaper and giving away some concierge-ness). None of this solves things for IVF today; I’m just saying, it’s not expensive due to the science and tech costing $20k.)
Assuming that it can be technically inexpensive, that cuts out our work for us: make it be inexpensive, by
Both internal to the field, and pressure / support from society and gvt
Don’t patent and then sit on it or keep it proprietary; instead publish science, or patent and license, or at least provide it as a platform service
Avoiding large other costs
Sane regulation
No monopolies
Subsidies
Might it be smart to make it a public good instead?
I definitely think that
as much as possible, gvt should fund related science to be published openly; this helps drive down prices, enables more competitive last-mile industry (clinics, platforms for biological operations, etc.), and signals a societal value of caring about this and not leaving it up to raw market forces
probably gvt should provide subsidies with some kind of general voucher (however, it should be a general voucher only, not a voucher for specific genomic choices—I don’t want the gvt controlling people’s genomic choices according to some centralized criterion, as this is eugenicsy, cf. https://berkeleygenomics.org/articles/Genomic_emancipation_contra_eugenics.html )
Is that what you mean? I don’t think we can rely on gvt and philanthropic funding to build out a widely-accessible set of clinics / other practical reprogenetics services, so if you meant nationalizing the industry, my guess is no, that would be bad to do.
I meant the basic economy way of defining public good, not necessarily the distribution mchanism, electricity and water are public goods but they aren’t necessarily determined by the government.
I’ve had the semi ironic idea of setting up a “genetic lottery” if supply was capped as it would redistribute things evenly (as long as people sign up evenly which is not true).
Anyways, cool stuff, happy that someone is on top of this!
Okay, I think the gradual point is a good one and also that it very much helps our institutions to be able to deal with increased intelligence.
I would be curious what you think about the idea of more permanent economic rifts and also the general economics of gene editing? Might it be smart to make it a public good instead?
Maybe there’s something here about IQ being hereditary already and thus the point about a more permanent two caste society with smart and stupid people is redundant but somehow I still feel that the economics of private gene editing over long periods of time feels a bit off?
As a matter of science and technology, reprogenetics should be inexpensive. I’ve analyzed this area quite a bit (though not focused specifically on eventual cost), see https://berkeleygenomics.org/articles/Methods_for_strong_human_germline_engineering.html . My fairly strong guess is that it’s perfectly feasible to have strong reprogenetics that’s pretty inexpensive (on the order of $5k to $25k for a pretty strongly genomically vectored zygote). From a tech and science perspective, I think I see multiple somewhat-disjunctive ways, each of which is pretty plausibly feasible, and each of which doesn’t seem to have any inputs that can’t be made inexpensive.
(As a comparison point, IVF is expensive—something like $8k to $20k—but my guess is that this is largely because of things like regulatory restrictions (needing an MD to supervise egg retrieval, even though NPs can do it well), drug price lock-in (the drugs are easy to manufacture, so are available cheaply on gray markets), and simply economic friction/overhang (CNY is cheaper basically by deciding to be cheaper and giving away some concierge-ness). None of this solves things for IVF today; I’m just saying, it’s not expensive due to the science and tech costing $20k.)
Assuming that it can be technically inexpensive, that cuts out our work for us: make it be inexpensive, by
Making the tech inexpensive
Thinking not just about the current tech, but investing in the stronger tech (stronger → less expensive https://berkeleygenomics.org/articles/Methods_for_strong_human_germline_engineering.html#strong-gv-and-why-it-matters )
Culture of innovation
Both internal to the field, and pressure / support from society and gvt
Don’t patent and then sit on it or keep it proprietary; instead publish science, or patent and license, or at least provide it as a platform service
Avoiding large other costs
Sane regulation
No monopolies
Subsidies
I definitely think that
as much as possible, gvt should fund related science to be published openly; this helps drive down prices, enables more competitive last-mile industry (clinics, platforms for biological operations, etc.), and signals a societal value of caring about this and not leaving it up to raw market forces
probably gvt should provide subsidies with some kind of general voucher (however, it should be a general voucher only, not a voucher for specific genomic choices—I don’t want the gvt controlling people’s genomic choices according to some centralized criterion, as this is eugenicsy, cf. https://berkeleygenomics.org/articles/Genomic_emancipation_contra_eugenics.html )
Is that what you mean? I don’t think we can rely on gvt and philanthropic funding to build out a widely-accessible set of clinics / other practical reprogenetics services, so if you meant nationalizing the industry, my guess is no, that would be bad to do.
I meant the basic economy way of defining public good, not necessarily the distribution mchanism, electricity and water are public goods but they aren’t necessarily determined by the government.
I’ve had the semi ironic idea of setting up a “genetic lottery” if supply was capped as it would redistribute things evenly (as long as people sign up evenly which is not true).
Anyways, cool stuff, happy that someone is on top of this!