This post seems to make an implicit assumption that the purpose of a warning shot is to get governments to do something. I usually think of a warning shot as making it clear that the risk is real, leading to additional work on alignment and making it easier for alignment advocates to have AGI companies implement specific alignment techniques. I agree that a warning shot is not likely to substitute for a technical approach to alignment.
(EDIT: Whoops, I see Evan made basically this comment already)
This post seems to make an implicit assumption that the purpose of a warning shot is to get governments to do something. I usually think of a warning shot as making it clear that the risk is real, leading to additional work on alignment and making it easier for alignment advocates to have AGI companies implement specific alignment techniques. I agree that a warning shot is not likely to substitute for a technical approach to alignment.
(EDIT: Whoops, I see Evan made basically this comment already)