I’ve never done so explicitly. Well, one time I did for a few weeks. I was doing great with most of my predictions being pretty accurate, and then a handful of them turned out to wildly undershoot (ie. the task took way longer than I expected), I lost motivation, and stopped.
Overall though, if I think back to my assessments over the years and how accurate they turned out to be, I think I lean slightly towards being too overconfident.
I’ve never done so explicitly. Well, one time I did for a few weeks. I was doing great with most of my predictions being pretty accurate, and then a handful of them turned out to wildly undershoot (ie. the task took way longer than I expected), I lost motivation, and stopped.
Overall though, if I think back to my assessments over the years and how accurate they turned out to be, I think I lean slightly towards being too overconfident.