Curated. The argument here is straightforward and seems basically correct to me. I think I have shorter timelines than Tsvi does, at least if not conditioning on a successful pause/stop effort, but as Tsvi says:
Working towards a pause / stop / ban on AGI progress is a top priority. But what is a pause for? We pause, and then what?
Really, most of the HIA has substantial impact even with short timelines section is important to understand, and should carry the argument even for people with pretty confidently short timelines. (Unless they disagree with “Very short timelines are pretty intractable.” by way of things that can meaningfully be influenced by humans today.) The points at which people think marginal effort allocation to HIA stops making sense might differ, but right now, there need to be more people working on this.
Curated. The argument here is straightforward and seems basically correct to me. I think I have shorter timelines than Tsvi does, at least if not conditioning on a successful pause/stop effort, but as Tsvi says:
Really, most of the HIA has substantial impact even with short timelines section is important to understand, and should carry the argument even for people with pretty confidently short timelines. (Unless they disagree with “Very short timelines are pretty intractable.” by way of things that can meaningfully be influenced by humans today.) The points at which people think marginal effort allocation to HIA stops making sense might differ, but right now, there need to be more people working on this.