I’m not sure, but I doubt this. It feels intuitively plausible to me that there will be some substantial market correction for various reasons (e.g. open source --> cheaper providers for a lot of what people would actually pay for; SWEs keep paying for the good stuff but a lot of enterprise and whatever doesn’t care; or maybe regulatory crackdown; or something) and also intuitively plausible that there won’t be. But it doesn’t feel that plausible that there will be that much of a slowdown on whatever AGI capabilities research is being spurred by the current state of things. That ship seems to have sailed some years ago. In other words, I expect there to continue being lots of investment in “Red” AGI capabilities research.
I’m not sure, but I doubt this. It feels intuitively plausible to me that there will be some substantial market correction for various reasons (e.g. open source --> cheaper providers for a lot of what people would actually pay for; SWEs keep paying for the good stuff but a lot of enterprise and whatever doesn’t care; or maybe regulatory crackdown; or something) and also intuitively plausible that there won’t be. But it doesn’t feel that plausible that there will be that much of a slowdown on whatever AGI capabilities research is being spurred by the current state of things. That ship seems to have sailed some years ago. In other words, I expect there to continue being lots of investment in “Red” AGI capabilities research.