This could be a somewhat sad dynamic. Though not that sad, and maybe even good, if the technology is actually following a very rapid increase.
For safety reasons, the strength of reprogenetics will most likely plateau after we get to “strong reprogenetics” (being able to nudge several polygenic traits by several SDs). Pushing too far on any polygenic score or on any trait carries big risks (too tall, too big of a brain, too high a metabolism, etc., would each come with health problems at some point). This Osborne effect should only persist while the derivative is substantial, and the higher the derivative is, the sooner the approximate plateau is reached.
More realistically, I think that in fact it’s usually not a good idea to wait to have kids for that reason (and I don’t especially plan to wait for that reason). Some reasons for that:
For many / most people, if they want to have kids, much or most of why they want that isn’t that sensitive to the changes that future reprogenetics can offer. For example, many people want their kids to be happy and healthy; sure intelligence or other capabilities sound nice, but a lot of people shrug their shoulders about it. Weaker reprogenetics can get much of the health benefits (though not much of the intelligence benefits). (Maybe they would have a different revealed preference when faced with the practical choice.)
There’s various reasons that sooner is better.
Personally, I want to get lots of practice parenting well, whether or not I’m going to have kids who benefit from strong HIA, but especially so if I am.
Personally, I want to do some parenting while I’m not very old.
Personally, I just want to have kids.
Having an older sibling is probably a solid way to give an HIA kid a good environment for intellectual growth by having an intellectual quasi-peer.
More generally, if the world trends upward in various ways, then there are probably advantages to getting a head start in time, like making an investment earlier.
I want to take an attitude that’s more wholesomely future-oriented. A bit more concretely, I don’t mind having my life be to a substantial degree in service of future children, and I would hope that many kids would take on an attitude like that. So it’s a good outcome to have a weak-HIA kid who will be the 15-year-old camp counselor for the 6-year-old strong-HIA kids, for example.
The development of the technology will probably be at least somewhat unpredictable, so you could easily be waiting 15 years, which many people would find regretful.
This could be a somewhat sad dynamic. Though not that sad, and maybe even good, if the technology is actually following a very rapid increase.
For safety reasons, the strength of reprogenetics will most likely plateau after we get to “strong reprogenetics” (being able to nudge several polygenic traits by several SDs). Pushing too far on any polygenic score or on any trait carries big risks (too tall, too big of a brain, too high a metabolism, etc., would each come with health problems at some point). This Osborne effect should only persist while the derivative is substantial, and the higher the derivative is, the sooner the approximate plateau is reached.
More realistically, I think that in fact it’s usually not a good idea to wait to have kids for that reason (and I don’t especially plan to wait for that reason). Some reasons for that:
For many / most people, if they want to have kids, much or most of why they want that isn’t that sensitive to the changes that future reprogenetics can offer. For example, many people want their kids to be happy and healthy; sure intelligence or other capabilities sound nice, but a lot of people shrug their shoulders about it. Weaker reprogenetics can get much of the health benefits (though not much of the intelligence benefits). (Maybe they would have a different revealed preference when faced with the practical choice.)
There’s various reasons that sooner is better.
Personally, I want to get lots of practice parenting well, whether or not I’m going to have kids who benefit from strong HIA, but especially so if I am.
Personally, I want to do some parenting while I’m not very old.
Personally, I just want to have kids.
Having an older sibling is probably a solid way to give an HIA kid a good environment for intellectual growth by having an intellectual quasi-peer.
More generally, if the world trends upward in various ways, then there are probably advantages to getting a head start in time, like making an investment earlier.
I want to take an attitude that’s more wholesomely future-oriented. A bit more concretely, I don’t mind having my life be to a substantial degree in service of future children, and I would hope that many kids would take on an attitude like that. So it’s a good outcome to have a weak-HIA kid who will be the 15-year-old camp counselor for the 6-year-old strong-HIA kids, for example.
The development of the technology will probably be at least somewhat unpredictable, so you could easily be waiting 15 years, which many people would find regretful.