It seems to matter quite a bit; this market has a trading volume of 11k mana and 57 different traders
This market uses play money.
The standard arguments for why traders are incentivized to put their money where their mouth is, and therefore push the market value closer to the “correct” probabilities, do not apply.
Any updates on the cover? It seems to matter quite a bit; this market has a trading volume of 11k mana and 57 different traders:
https://manifold.markets/ms/yudkowsky-soares-change-the-book-co?r=YWRlbGU
This market uses play money.
The standard arguments for why traders are incentivized to put their money where their mouth is, and therefore push the market value closer to the “correct” probabilities, do not apply.