Well, the Flynn effect will not go on forever. I never claimed anything about elite subpopulations. Effective intelligence has also long been increasing via machine-based intelligence augmentation, though—and that trend will eventually dominate.
Well, the Flynn effect will not go on forever. I never claimed anything about elite subpopulations.
If the explosion has already stopped in some populations, then whence the present tense in “Actually, the intelligence explosion has been in progress for a long time now—and effective intelligence is already increasing with unprecidented rapidity.”
Shouldn’t that have read, “Actually, the intelligence explosion was in effect for a long time, and effective intelligence had increased with unprecedented rapidity.”?
So: by “effective intelligence” I’m mostly talking about man plus computer systems. People are quite a bit smarter if they can use a camera, a net connection and have their test processed by a test-solving sweatshop. Expert systems are rising above human capabilities in many domains—in the form of large data centres.
Increasing? What makes you think the Flynn effect is still operating in well-off populations? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect#Possible_end_of_progression
And if you look at smart populations, they’re quite stagnant. Check the graphs in 2011 “The Flynn effect puzzle: A 30-year examination from the right tail of the ability distribution provides some missing pieces”—the trends are pretty noisy, with large falls during some periods, and while the authors focus on the math stuff because you can pull an increase out of them, the English or verbal tests fall overall.
Well, the Flynn effect will not go on forever. I never claimed anything about elite subpopulations. Effective intelligence has also long been increasing via machine-based intelligence augmentation, though—and that trend will eventually dominate.
If the explosion has already stopped in some populations, then whence the present tense in “Actually, the intelligence explosion has been in progress for a long time now—and effective intelligence is already increasing with unprecidented rapidity.”
Shouldn’t that have read, “Actually, the intelligence explosion was in effect for a long time, and effective intelligence had increased with unprecedented rapidity.”?
So: by “effective intelligence” I’m mostly talking about man plus computer systems. People are quite a bit smarter if they can use a camera, a net connection and have their test processed by a test-solving sweatshop. Expert systems are rising above human capabilities in many domains—in the form of large data centres.