It also makes the quantitative prediction that a doubling in compute (or compute efficiency) leads to a 2⁄3 win probability, or around 120 Elo points. (Credit to the Hex paper for this observation.) Under 18-month doublings (per one version of Moore’s law), this would be around 800 Elo points per decade, which looks like a bit of an overestimate but similar to the fastest observed rate of progress.
It also makes the quantitative prediction that a doubling in compute (or compute efficiency) leads to a 2⁄3 win probability, or around 120 Elo points. (Credit to the Hex paper for this observation.) Under 18-month doublings (per one version of Moore’s law), this would be around 800 Elo points per decade, which looks like a bit of an overestimate but similar to the fastest observed rate of progress.