The human species was always too weak to render itself extinct. Until we discovered the nuclear chain reaction and manufactured thousands of atomic bombs.
Again, it’s still not clear that this is true. There aren’t enough bombs to kill everyone, and it’s likely humanity would survive a nuclear winter (even if most humans wouldn’t).
It’s possible that we’d be able to wreck civilization with a relatively small number of decisions, but “wreck civilization” is vague, and might not be true. It’s certainly the case that it’s possible to kill more people with fewer decisions than ever before.
It is hard to estimate whether there were enough bombs to kill everyone at any moment. On-ground detonation of entire arsenal of all nuclear powers could cause quite a lot of fallout. It is another question that it would not happen even in a nucleart war, because detonating the nuclear bomb above a military base or a factoy would instantly burn a large area while causing less fallout. So it was considered more effective and more predictable.
It could be that I am misunderstanding that infographic, but it appears only to count deaths from the actual blasts and possibly from fatal short-term radiation poisoning. It does not appear to include subsequent deaths due to starvation and economic collapse.
I believe your interpretation is correct. I find it hard to believe, though, that everyone would die in the event of an economic collapse (even economic collapse plus nuclear winter), though it seems very likely most would.
Again, it’s still not clear that this is true. There aren’t enough bombs to kill everyone, and it’s likely humanity would survive a nuclear winter (even if most humans wouldn’t).
It’s possible that we’d be able to wreck civilization with a relatively small number of decisions, but “wreck civilization” is vague, and might not be true. It’s certainly the case that it’s possible to kill more people with fewer decisions than ever before.
It is hard to estimate whether there were enough bombs to kill everyone at any moment. On-ground detonation of entire arsenal of all nuclear powers could cause quite a lot of fallout. It is another question that it would not happen even in a nucleart war, because detonating the nuclear bomb above a military base or a factoy would instantly burn a large area while causing less fallout. So it was considered more effective and more predictable.
Citation? I’m curious to know what the current consensus is on the likelihood that full-scale nuclear war is an existential risk for humanity.
This is the source that changed my mind, although it appears to be somewhat controversial.
Is the “complete destruction radius” the same as the “everybody dies in this radius”?
I am not an expert in the nuclear weapons business, and so the best I can give you is “>50% chance?”.
It could be that I am misunderstanding that infographic, but it appears only to count deaths from the actual blasts and possibly from fatal short-term radiation poisoning. It does not appear to include subsequent deaths due to starvation and economic collapse.
I believe your interpretation is correct. I find it hard to believe, though, that everyone would die in the event of an economic collapse (even economic collapse plus nuclear winter), though it seems very likely most would.