I certainly didn’t say that would be risk-free, but it interacts with other drag factors on very high estimates of risk. In the full-length discussion of it, I pair it with discussion of historical lags in tech development between leader and follower in technological arms races (longer than one month) and factors relative to corporate and international espionage, raise the possibility of global coordination (or at least between the leader and next closest follower), and so on.
It also interacts with technical achievements in producing ‘domesticity’ short of exact unity of will.
It’s still unclear to me why you called your point “strategy-swallowing” though, or what that phrase means exactly.
When strategy A to a large extent can capture the impacts of strategy B.
I certainly didn’t say that would be risk-free, but it interacts with other drag factors on very high estimates of risk.
If you’re making the point as part of an argument against “either Eliezer’s FAI plan succeeds, or the world dies” then ok, that makes sense. ETA: But it seems like it would be very easy to take “if humans can do it, then not very superintelligent AIs can” out of context, so I’d suggest some other way of making this point.
When strategy A to a large extent can capture the impacts of strategy.
Sorry, I’m still not getting it. What does “impacts of strategy” mean here?
I certainly didn’t say that would be risk-free, but it interacts with other drag factors on very high estimates of risk. In the full-length discussion of it, I pair it with discussion of historical lags in tech development between leader and follower in technological arms races (longer than one month) and factors relative to corporate and international espionage, raise the possibility of global coordination (or at least between the leader and next closest follower), and so on.
It also interacts with technical achievements in producing ‘domesticity’ short of exact unity of will.
When strategy A to a large extent can capture the impacts of strategy B.
If you’re making the point as part of an argument against “either Eliezer’s FAI plan succeeds, or the world dies” then ok, that makes sense. ETA: But it seems like it would be very easy to take “if humans can do it, then not very superintelligent AIs can” out of context, so I’d suggest some other way of making this point.
Sorry, I’m still not getting it. What does “impacts of strategy” mean here?