I used that threshold because the numbers being thrown around in the thread were along those lines, and are needed for the “medium probability” referred to in the OP. So counterfactual impact of MIRI never having existed on x-risk is the main measure under discussion here. I erred in quoting your sentence in a way that might have made that hard to interpret.
If the Gates Foundation had someone evaluate the evidence for AI-related x-risk right now, you probably wouldn’t expect MIRI research, AI researcher polls, philosophical essays etc. to be wholly disregarded.
That’s right, and one reason that I think that MIRI’s existence has reduced expected x-risk, although by less than a 10% probability.
I used that threshold because the numbers being thrown around in the thread were along those lines, and are needed for the “medium probability” referred to in the OP. So counterfactual impact of MIRI never having existed on x-risk is the main measure under discussion here. I erred in quoting your sentence in a way that might have made that hard to interpret.
That’s right, and one reason that I think that MIRI’s existence has reduced expected x-risk, although by less than a 10% probability.