like that AGI is a near-term (under 100 years) x-risk
FHI sent a survey the top 100 most cited authors in AI and got a response rate of ~1/3, and the median estimates backed this (although this needs to be checked for response bias). Results will be published in September at PT-AI.
x-risk and that MIRI has non-negligible odds (say, a few percent or more) of mitigating it.
I.e. a probability of a few percent that there is AI risk, MIRI solves it, and otherwise it wouldn’t have been solved and existential catastrophe would have resulted? That would not happen with non-gerrymandered criteria for the expert group.
But if a credible such group did deliver that result believably, then one could go to Gates or Buffett (who has spent hundreds of millions on nuclear risk efforts with much lower probability of averting nuclear war) or national governments and get billions in funding. All the work in that scenario is coming from the independent panel concluding the thing is many orders of magnitude better than almost any alternative use of spending, way past the threshold for funding.
The rich guy who says he would donate based on it is an irrelevancy in the hypo.
FHI sent a survey the top 100 most cited authors in AI and got a response rate of ~1/3, and the median estimates backed this (although this needs to be checked for response bias). Results will be published in September at PT-AI.
I.e. a probability of a few percent that there is AI risk, MIRI solves it, and otherwise it wouldn’t have been solved and existential catastrophe would have resulted? That would not happen with non-gerrymandered criteria for the expert group.
But if a credible such group did deliver that result believably, then one could go to Gates or Buffett (who has spent hundreds of millions on nuclear risk efforts with much lower probability of averting nuclear war) or national governments and get billions in funding. All the work in that scenario is coming from the independent panel concluding the thing is many orders of magnitude better than almost any alternative use of spending, way past the threshold for funding.
The rich guy who says he would donate based on it is an irrelevancy in the hypo.