How does MIRI Know it Has a Medium Probability of Success?
it doesn’t know of course. The uncertainty in any probability estimate is bound to be huge, which is reflected in the variety of estimates and opinions event within MIRI. I hope to see some day a thoughtfully constructed reference class with a large enough number of members to be worth drawing conclusions from.
it doesn’t know of course. The uncertainty in any probability estimate is bound to be huge, which is reflected in the variety of estimates and opinions event within MIRI. I hope to see some day a thoughtfully constructed reference class with a large enough number of members to be worth drawing conclusions from.