I expect there will be a substantial gap between “the minimum viable AI system which can obtain enough resources to pay for its own inference costs, actually navigate the process of paying those inference costs, and create copies of itself” and “the first AI with a DSA”. Though I’m also not extremely bullish on the usefulness of non-obvious dealmaking strategies in that event.
I except dealmaking is unnecessary for extracting safe and useful labour from that minimal viable AI.
It’s difficult to make credible deals with dumb AIs because they won’t be smart enough to tell whether we have actually ‘signed the contracts’ or not. Maybe we’re simulating a world where we have signed the contracts. So the deals only work when the AIs are so smart that we can’t simulate the environment while deluding them about the existence of contracts. This occurs only when the AI is very smart or widely deployed. But in that case, my guess is they have DSA.
I expect there will be a substantial gap between “the minimum viable AI system which can obtain enough resources to pay for its own inference costs, actually navigate the process of paying those inference costs, and create copies of itself” and “the first AI with a DSA”. Though I’m also not extremely bullish on the usefulness of non-obvious dealmaking strategies in that event.
I except dealmaking is unnecessary for extracting safe and useful labour from that minimal viable AI.
It’s difficult to make credible deals with dumb AIs because they won’t be smart enough to tell whether we have actually ‘signed the contracts’ or not. Maybe we’re simulating a world where we have signed the contracts. So the deals only work when the AIs are so smart that we can’t simulate the environment while deluding them about the existence of contracts. This occurs only when the AI is very smart or widely deployed. But in that case, my guess is they have DSA.