Interesting assertion. By conservation of expected evidence, it implies
If ARC’s research agenda fails (in a way that appears to be due to the intractability of the problem), you’re more likely to live in a simulation.
Do you endorse that assertion? I can kind of see the argument for it—if our descendants can’t estimate a quantity they care about by reasoning about the world’s structure, then they have to just run the simulations. That framing feels a lot bolder to me though.
Interesting assertion. By conservation of expected evidence, it implies
Do you endorse that assertion? I can kind of see the argument for it—if our descendants can’t estimate a quantity they care about by reasoning about the world’s structure, then they have to just run the simulations. That framing feels a lot bolder to me though.
Yes, I endorse the reverse update. But the update is smaller because I already expect ARC’s agenda to fail.