Yes, that’s what it means when you draw a causal arrow from recessions(t) to burglars(t+1), unless you think that recessions instantaneously cause burglars, etc.
It’s entirely possible that we lack the ability to distinguish information about t+1 from information about t. Do recessions cause burglars in less time than the resolution of our economic and police statistics? Can a recession cause burglaries which cause alarms which further cause more recession in such a manner as the original recession cannot be noticed?
Yes, that’s what it means when you draw a causal arrow from recessions(t) to burglars(t+1), unless you think that recessions instantaneously cause burglars, etc.
It’s entirely possible that we lack the ability to distinguish information about t+1 from information about t. Do recessions cause burglars in less time than the resolution of our economic and police statistics? Can a recession cause burglaries which cause alarms which further cause more recession in such a manner as the original recession cannot be noticed?