Like you I found the skepticism about AI Doom to be confusing from a sci-fi author. My steel(wo)man here is that Beth is not saying that there is no risk of AI Doom, but rather that AI timelines are long enough that our ability to influence that risk is zero. This is the analogy of a child twirling a million mile rope. There’s the same implicit objection to Simulation Hypothesis and Grabby Aliens—it’s not that these ideas are false, it’s that they are not decision-relevant.
The criticism of cryonics and LLMs are more concrete. Beth and her husband, Gary, have strong opinions on personal identity and the biological feasibility of cryonics. We never find out Gary’s job, maybe he is a science fiction writer? These are more closely linked to the present day, less like a million mile rope. Perhaps that’s why they get longer critiques.
(I finished reading Death and the Gorgon this month)
Although the satire is called Optimized Giving, I think the story is equally a satire of rationalism. Egan satirizes LessWrong, cryonics, murderousness, Fun Theory, Astronomical Waste, Bayesianism, Simulation Hypothesis, Grabby Aliens, and AI Doom. The OG killers are selfish and weird. It’s a story of longtermists using rationalists.
Like you I found the skepticism about AI Doom to be confusing from a sci-fi author. My steel(wo)man here is that Beth is not saying that there is no risk of AI Doom, but rather that AI timelines are long enough that our ability to influence that risk is zero. This is the analogy of a child twirling a million mile rope. There’s the same implicit objection to Simulation Hypothesis and Grabby Aliens—it’s not that these ideas are false, it’s that they are not decision-relevant.
The criticism of cryonics and LLMs are more concrete. Beth and her husband, Gary, have strong opinions on personal identity and the biological feasibility of cryonics. We never find out Gary’s job, maybe he is a science fiction writer? These are more closely linked to the present day, less like a million mile rope. Perhaps that’s why they get longer critiques.