I am interested in this topic in general, but for this specific post I’m merely trying to respond to an argument that assumes there is such a thing as “the probability”. Often it is best to address an argument by taking certain assumptions for granted and explaining that even given those assumptions the argument doesn’t follow.
Edit: Actually, thinking about this in terms of bets is more useful than I thought as per Charlie Steiner’s comment.
Probability is a model of anticipated experiences and can be tested by measuring frequency of an event they predict, whether in a real or in a thought experiment. What experiment would you set up to test your model that the odd of being the original is 1%?
I am interested in this topic in general, but for this specific post I’m merely trying to respond to an argument that assumes there is such a thing as “the probability”. Often it is best to address an argument by taking certain assumptions for granted and explaining that even given those assumptions the argument doesn’t follow.
Edit: Actually, thinking about this in terms of bets is more useful than I thought as per Charlie Steiner’s comment.