I increased my AI timelines substantially. Back in 2016 I felt AGI was so near that I founded a startup aiming for safe AGI before 2030. After I spent a couple of years looking deeply into this topic I realized I was wrong and shut down the project.
Relative to my expectations in 2018, AI progress had been even more underwhelming since then. Now I see AGI so far away that I can no longer come up with a model for sensible timeline estimates.
I increased my AI timelines substantially. Back in 2016 I felt AGI was so near that I founded a startup aiming for safe AGI before 2030. After I spent a couple of years looking deeply into this topic I realized I was wrong and shut down the project.
Relative to my expectations in 2018, AI progress had been even more underwhelming since then. Now I see AGI so far away that I can no longer come up with a model for sensible timeline estimates.
What are your reasons for AGI being so far away?
I’d love to see a post with your reasonings.