In 2015 when I wrote my universal learning machine post I roughly expected AGI in about 10 years, so 2025. My latest more detailed estimate has a median around 2030.
If I then hard meta-update (with the simplest model) on those prediction updates I should predict I’ll update to 2032.5 in 2029 and finally 2033.75 in 2032.
Metaculus was created in 2015 and the AGI questions didn’t come until later, but it’s pretty clear that my 2015 prediction of AGI 2025 would be wildly shorter than the median had the question existed then.
My current prediction of AGI median 2030 or perhaps 2034 is closer to the current metaculusconsensus, depending on which specific definition one uses.
In 2015 when I wrote my universal learning machine post I roughly expected AGI in about 10 years, so 2025. My latest more detailed estimate has a median around 2030.
If I then hard meta-update (with the simplest model) on those prediction updates I should predict I’ll update to 2032.5 in 2029 and finally 2033.75 in 2032.
Metaculus was created in 2015 and the AGI questions didn’t come until later, but it’s pretty clear that my 2015 prediction of AGI 2025 would be wildly shorter than the median had the question existed then.
My current prediction of AGI median 2030 or perhaps 2034 is closer to the current metaculus consensus, depending on which specific definition one uses.