one theory that seems to work is people are pretty good at median time estimates, but a lot of uncertainty + how time estimates can never be negative = there’s a huge right-tail skew, so some tasks will blow up and completely dominate your average/total time.
one theory that seems to work is people are pretty good at median time estimates, but a lot of uncertainty + how time estimates can never be negative = there’s a huge right-tail skew, so some tasks will blow up and completely dominate your average/total time.
(based on https://erikbern.com/2019/04/15/why-software-projects-take-longer-than-you-think-a-statistical-model.html)