It also seems like within the AI case, there are several different stories around for why we should expect discontinuous progress in AI. Sometimes people talk about recursive self-improvement, other times about how there is likely to be one big insight, or about how intelligence is such that even a tiny insight is likely to make a big difference (while pointing to the small differences between monkeys and humans). I think there might be more I’m not remembering too.
It also seems like within the AI case, there are several different stories around for why we should expect discontinuous progress in AI. Sometimes people talk about recursive self-improvement, other times about how there is likely to be one big insight, or about how intelligence is such that even a tiny insight is likely to make a big difference (while pointing to the small differences between monkeys and humans). I think there might be more I’m not remembering too.