My understanding is that this is arguing that current LLMs are too slow and expensive for them to be able to run amok online,
Not at all! I’m arguing that the relativecapability difference is what matters, and small models without real-world backing will be competing for resources with massive models being run with national governments’ money and power behind them.
If you had access to GPT-3 in 2011, when its closest competitors were Markov chain models, it could probably make you a millionaire pretty readily. Today, if you tried to build a business around GPT-3, you’d be quickly eaten alive by people with the same business idea running Opus-5, Kimi K3, or ChatGPT Sol.
Not at all! I’m arguing that the relative capability difference is what matters, and small models without real-world backing will be competing for resources with massive models being run with national governments’ money and power behind them.
If you had access to GPT-3 in 2011, when its closest competitors were Markov chain models, it could probably make you a millionaire pretty readily. Today, if you tried to build a business around GPT-3, you’d be quickly eaten alive by people with the same business idea running Opus-5, Kimi K3, or ChatGPT Sol.