When Elon says stuff like “We’re in a simulation, and the most entertaining outcome is the most likely”, I actually think he’s not just being goofy and is completely serious about what he believes.
Think about what it must be like to be Elon. You are literally 4x richer than any other person on the planet. Your businesses and political reach put your name in almost every important conversation in modern America. In virtually every room you enter you are the Main Character.
How likely is it, actually, that you are the real Elon Musk, vs. just some dude who spun up a sim to see what it was to be a tech emperor during an “AGI revolution”? It’s probably hard for him to completely discount that he’s in some sort of Total Recall situation and that none of these other people are actually real.
When Elon says anything, I expect that he’s not attempting to describe a world; he’s attempting to cause a transfer of resources from other people to himself.
Isn’t this argument kind of similar to the argument that gets thrown around that the universal prior is malign? Like, an AI singleton figures “I’m so important and pivotal that it’s more likely I’m a version of myself being simulated by aliens as a way to boost their own values through manipulating me, than an actual singleton.”
When Elon says stuff like “We’re in a simulation, and the most entertaining outcome is the most likely”, I actually think he’s not just being goofy and is completely serious about what he believes.
Think about what it must be like to be Elon. You are literally 4x richer than any other person on the planet. Your businesses and political reach put your name in almost every important conversation in modern America. In virtually every room you enter you are the Main Character.
How likely is it, actually, that you are the real Elon Musk, vs. just some dude who spun up a sim to see what it was to be a tech emperor during an “AGI revolution”? It’s probably hard for him to completely discount that he’s in some sort of Total Recall situation and that none of these other people are actually real.
When Elon says anything, I expect that he’s not attempting to describe a world; he’s attempting to cause a transfer of resources from other people to himself.
Honestly I never seriously considered the idea that he might be joking
Isn’t this argument kind of similar to the argument that gets thrown around that the universal prior is malign? Like, an AI singleton figures “I’m so important and pivotal that it’s more likely I’m a version of myself being simulated by aliens as a way to boost their own values through manipulating me, than an actual singleton.”
Wait, isn’t this a bit of a too large humble pill to swallow?
I’m not arguing that this is rational, I’m describing a world model that he might be tempted to secretly believe.
He has a temptation to believe in simulation. But doesn’t he also have a counter-temptation to believe he’s the real Elon, not a random dude?
I’m pretty sure decision theory doesn’t work that way.
Who said anything about decision theory? I’m just describing the vanilla world model of a madman.