To evaluate this, you need to have known that person in the past. I know some people who say stories like “I was always X, but recently I have suddenly switched to Y”, but I also knew them a few decades ago and their attraction towards Y was always there, so that hearing about them switching to Y came as no surprise to me, or rather only the specific timing was surprising.
People seem to be quite bad at knowing what made them do what. Many of their beliefs are just post-hoc rationalizations.
To evaluate this, you need to have known that person in the past. I know some people who say stories like “I was always X, but recently I have suddenly switched to Y”, but I also knew them a few decades ago and their attraction towards Y was always there, so that hearing about them switching to Y came as no surprise to me, or rather only the specific timing was surprising.
People seem to be quite bad at knowing what made them do what. Many of their beliefs are just post-hoc rationalizations.