It’s not obvious that GPT5 will be way better than GPT4. However, it seems reasonably likely based on looking at the jump from GPT3 to GPT4 or GPT3.5 to GPT4.
GPT3 is very, very dumb. Really, go play with it. It’s clearly well below humans at many tasks where language models are reasonably advantaged.
GPT4 is vastly better. It’s often notably better than median humans on tasks that LLMs are reasonably advantaged at.
It’s unclear how to extrapolate the situation, but there is a plausible extrapolation which result in GPT5 or GPT6 being quite scary.
There are two key subquestions here: the scaling function of better at X with respect to net training compute, and what exactly X entails.
The X here is ‘predict internet text’, not “generate new highly valuable research etc”, and success at the latter likely requires combining LLMs with at least planning/search.
It’s not obvious that GPT5 will be way better than GPT4. However, it seems reasonably likely based on looking at the jump from GPT3 to GPT4 or GPT3.5 to GPT4.
GPT3 is very, very dumb. Really, go play with it. It’s clearly well below humans at many tasks where language models are reasonably advantaged.
GPT4 is vastly better. It’s often notably better than median humans on tasks that LLMs are reasonably advantaged at.
It’s unclear how to extrapolate the situation, but there is a plausible extrapolation which result in GPT5 or GPT6 being quite scary.
There are two key subquestions here: the scaling function of better at X with respect to net training compute, and what exactly X entails.
The X here is ‘predict internet text’, not “generate new highly valuable research etc”, and success at the latter likely requires combining LLMs with at least planning/search.