ryan_greenblatt comments on Vote on Interesting Disagreements

[ryan_greenblatt]

Ambitious mechanistic interpretability is quite unlikely^[1] to be able to confidently assess^[2] whether AIs^[3] are deceptively aligned (or otherwise have dangerous propensities) in the next 10 years.

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1. ↩︎

   greater than 90% failure

2. ↩︎

   likelihood ratio of 10

3. ↩︎

   I’m refering to which ever AIs are pivotal or cruxy for things to go well prior to human obsolescence.