My prediction was wrong- looking back, there were several pieces of evidence I got after my prediction that should have caused me to issue a retraction, rather than a modification. I recall the part in parentheses being an edit- and once I realized that I should have adjusted my confidence rather than my statement.
I’m curious how things go if you only include the 11 strategies submitted by LWers with at least 500 karma.
Thanks for doing this!
My prediction was wrong- looking back, there were several pieces of evidence I got after my prediction that should have caused me to issue a retraction, rather than a modification. I recall the part in parentheses being an edit- and once I realized that I should have adjusted my confidence rather than my statement.
I’m curious how things go if you only include the 11 strategies submitted by LWers with at least 500 karma.