There’s a great section in “The Black Swan” where Taleb is called in to consult for a casino or something, and he discovers that the biggest losses the casino ever suffered weren’t due to bad luck in the blackjack pits or anything like that. One loss involved a lawsuit caused by a stage tiger that got loose and hurt a bunch of people; another loss was caused when an employee failed, for inexplicable reasons, to send a special tax form to the IRS, so the casino was hit with a big penalty.
Beware the Ludic Fallacy.
There’s a great section in “The Black Swan” where Taleb is called in to consult for a casino or something, and he discovers that the biggest losses the casino ever suffered weren’t due to bad luck in the blackjack pits or anything like that. One loss involved a lawsuit caused by a stage tiger that got loose and hurt a bunch of people; another loss was caused when an employee failed, for inexplicable reasons, to send a special tax form to the IRS, so the casino was hit with a big penalty.