I think that your marginal impact is also important to consider.
It seems conceivable that you could hedge your bets by arranging to work on one thing, while someone else you have confidence in works on something else. Like, you do AGI and Bob does activism.
Does adding Bob to AGI once you’re there help? By how much? If (for some odd reason) it’s negligible, then it’s probably better to split up.
How dedicated does Bob have to be to AGI to be helpful? If an hour a week of him doing work on it gets 80% of the utility of his all, then it’s also probably better for him to be doing other things. And vice versa.
I think that your marginal impact is also important to consider.
It seems conceivable that you could hedge your bets by arranging to work on one thing, while someone else you have confidence in works on something else. Like, you do AGI and Bob does activism.
Does adding Bob to AGI once you’re there help? By how much? If (for some odd reason) it’s negligible, then it’s probably better to split up.
How dedicated does Bob have to be to AGI to be helpful? If an hour a week of him doing work on it gets 80% of the utility of his all, then it’s also probably better for him to be doing other things. And vice versa.