I thought Robin meant: Let the Less Wrong community sort through the information and see if there is a consensus arises on one side or the other. In this case no one has a “right answer” in mind, but we got a pretty conclusive, high confidence answer in the Knox case. Maybe we can do that here- we’d just need to put the time in (and have a well-defined question). Yes, there aren’t many biochemists among us. But we all seem remarkably comfortable reading through studies and evaluating scientific findings on grounds of statistics, source credibility etc. Also, my uninformed guess is that a lot of the science is just going to consist of statistical correlations without a lot of deep biochemistry.
I thought Robin meant: Let the Less Wrong community sort through the information and see if there is a consensus arises on one side or the other.
Oddly, no—although I think that would be a good exercise to carry out at intervals, I was imagining the theoretical solo game that each commenter played before bringing evidence to the community. Which has the difficulties that komponisto mentioned, of there not being prominent pro- and con- communities available, among other things.
I thought Robin meant: Let the Less Wrong community sort through the information and see if there is a consensus arises on one side or the other. In this case no one has a “right answer” in mind, but we got a pretty conclusive, high confidence answer in the Knox case. Maybe we can do that here- we’d just need to put the time in (and have a well-defined question). Yes, there aren’t many biochemists among us. But we all seem remarkably comfortable reading through studies and evaluating scientific findings on grounds of statistics, source credibility etc. Also, my uninformed guess is that a lot of the science is just going to consist of statistical correlations without a lot of deep biochemistry.
Oddly, no—although I think that would be a good exercise to carry out at intervals, I was imagining the theoretical solo game that each commenter played before bringing evidence to the community. Which has the difficulties that komponisto mentioned, of there not being prominent pro- and con- communities available, among other things.
I’m thinking:
Define the claim/s precisely.
Come up with a short list of pro and con sources
Individual stage: anyone who wants to participate goes through the sources and does some addition research as they feel necessary.
Each individual posts their own probability estimates for the claims.
Communal stage: Disagreements are ironed out, sources shared, arguing and beliefs revised.
Reflection: What, if anything, have we agreed on. It would be a lot harder than the Knox case but it is probably doable.
Yes, that’s it. I don’t think enough time has passed to get around to another such exercise, however.