The real problem with anthropic reasoning is that it’s just a default starting point. We are tricked because it seems very powerful in contrived thought experiments in which no other evidence is available.
In the real world, in which there is a wealth of evidence available, it’s just a reality check saying “most things don’t last forever.”
In real world situations, it’s also very easy to get into a game of reference class tennis.
The real problem with anthropic reasoning is that it’s just a default starting point. We are tricked because it seems very powerful in contrived thought experiments in which no other evidence is available.
In the real world, in which there is a wealth of evidence available, it’s just a reality check saying “most things don’t last forever.”
In real world situations, it’s also very easy to get into a game of reference class tennis.
I read the linked-to comment, but still don’t know what reference class tennis is.