I’ve noticed something in my thinking of late regarding cryonics. I only discovered cryonics through LW. I only grew enthusiastic about cryonics through LW. I have a belief that, had I never read any LW articles or Yudkowsky or Hansom discussions on the subject, cryonics would not matter to me.
In other words, the bulk of evidence for my estimation of cryonics has been the enthusiasms of other people, people whose opinions I’ve come to take seriously and use as tools to calculate my own predictions. My doubts about cryonics stem from the opinions of doubting people, so that even my uncertainties are not original from my own estimates. This bothers me because cryonics is something I have come to take seriously. I have expended resources considering the implications of it and weighing the costs and payouts of it in my own life without building a foundation for why I should even be thinking about it. This is not the fault of anyone but me, and my failure in this department is aggravating.
When I decided to sit down earlier this week and figure out an actual estimate using my own resources for the probability of cryonics, I found I could not do it. Let me rephrase that: I did not do it. I did not know how to do the math, I did not know what numbers to use, and I finally classified the problem as too costly in time for the payout because the payout would likely be mismeasured given my obvious lack of knowledge and ability. I could probably come up with a probability, but it would rely entirely on the work of others and give me no greater satisfaction on this topic than I already have.
I’m not writing this to ask for someone else’s numbers. That’s the very problem I’ve found in my way of thinking. I realize that I support my belief that cryonics is worthwhile with emotional responses and rely on the numbers of other people to validate that response. When I meet people like lukeprog with other numbers, then my enthusiasms wanes, even though my own personal calculations haven’t changed. I update entirely on whether someone whose opinion I take seriously is supporting the belief or not. I do not like this.
I have personally found myself being confused when people bring up many-worlds in discussions on whether cryonics works or not. I will admit that I have not internalized any idea of many-worlds as impacting on my decisions, and, much like cryonics, my acceptance of it as an idea is much too dependent on others’ work. When I think of cryonics, I do not think of multitudes of futures. I think “is it worth the $200/month it would cost me?” The idea of good futures and bad futures and waking up in a green room versus a red room do not figure into my personal calculations. Which is probably another reliance on other peoples’ work. The furthest my math goes is “cost of cryonics versus likelihood of it working.” It’s the second number that I’ve let trouble me.
Because I am confused and because I am inadequately attempting to fix that confusion, I’ve decided I will not accept my current thoughts and beliefs on cryonics. I’ll learn from this that, if I’m to become entangled in an emotionally stimulating topic, I need to establish a foundation from the start on that topic, one that I can build and update upon.
I’m a member of Alcor and believe that because of the possibility of a singularity there is a chance (although < 50%) that if I live long enough to reach the singularity I will get to live an extremely long time in utopia. Cryonics, by giving me an extra chance at making it to a good singularity, is worth a lot to me.
Cryonics and I Can’t Do Math:
I’ve noticed something in my thinking of late regarding cryonics. I only discovered cryonics through LW. I only grew enthusiastic about cryonics through LW. I have a belief that, had I never read any LW articles or Yudkowsky or Hansom discussions on the subject, cryonics would not matter to me.
In other words, the bulk of evidence for my estimation of cryonics has been the enthusiasms of other people, people whose opinions I’ve come to take seriously and use as tools to calculate my own predictions. My doubts about cryonics stem from the opinions of doubting people, so that even my uncertainties are not original from my own estimates. This bothers me because cryonics is something I have come to take seriously. I have expended resources considering the implications of it and weighing the costs and payouts of it in my own life without building a foundation for why I should even be thinking about it. This is not the fault of anyone but me, and my failure in this department is aggravating.
When I decided to sit down earlier this week and figure out an actual estimate using my own resources for the probability of cryonics, I found I could not do it. Let me rephrase that: I did not do it. I did not know how to do the math, I did not know what numbers to use, and I finally classified the problem as too costly in time for the payout because the payout would likely be mismeasured given my obvious lack of knowledge and ability. I could probably come up with a probability, but it would rely entirely on the work of others and give me no greater satisfaction on this topic than I already have.
I’m not writing this to ask for someone else’s numbers. That’s the very problem I’ve found in my way of thinking. I realize that I support my belief that cryonics is worthwhile with emotional responses and rely on the numbers of other people to validate that response. When I meet people like lukeprog with other numbers, then my enthusiasms wanes, even though my own personal calculations haven’t changed. I update entirely on whether someone whose opinion I take seriously is supporting the belief or not. I do not like this.
I have personally found myself being confused when people bring up many-worlds in discussions on whether cryonics works or not. I will admit that I have not internalized any idea of many-worlds as impacting on my decisions, and, much like cryonics, my acceptance of it as an idea is much too dependent on others’ work. When I think of cryonics, I do not think of multitudes of futures. I think “is it worth the $200/month it would cost me?” The idea of good futures and bad futures and waking up in a green room versus a red room do not figure into my personal calculations. Which is probably another reliance on other peoples’ work. The furthest my math goes is “cost of cryonics versus likelihood of it working.” It’s the second number that I’ve let trouble me.
Because I am confused and because I am inadequately attempting to fix that confusion, I’ve decided I will not accept my current thoughts and beliefs on cryonics. I’ll learn from this that, if I’m to become entangled in an emotionally stimulating topic, I need to establish a foundation from the start on that topic, one that I can build and update upon.
I’m a member of Alcor and believe that because of the possibility of a singularity there is a chance (although < 50%) that if I live long enough to reach the singularity I will get to live an extremely long time in utopia. Cryonics, by giving me an extra chance at making it to a good singularity, is worth a lot to me.