Doesn’t the revealed preference argument also imply people don’t care much about dying from aging? (This is invested in even less than catastrophic risk mitigation and people don’t take interventions that would prolong their lives considerably.) I agree revealed preferences imply people care little about the long run future of humanity, but they do imply caring much more about children living full lives than old people avoiding aging.
I agree that the amount of funding explicitly designated for anti-aging research is very low, which suggests society doesn’t prioritize curing aging as a social goal. However, I think your overall conclusion is significantly overstated. A very large fraction of conventional medical research specifically targets health and lifespan improvements for older people, even though it isn’t labeled explicitly as “anti-aging.”
Biologically, aging isn’t a single condition but rather the cumulative result of multiple factors and accumulated damage over time. For example, anti-smoking campaigns were essentially efforts to slow aging by reducing damage to smokers’ bodies—particularly their lungs—even though these campaigns were presented primarily as life-saving measures rather than “anti-aging” initiatives. Similarly, society invests a substantial amount of time and resources in mitigating biological damage caused by air pollution and obesity.
Considering this broader understanding of aging, it seems exaggerated to claim that people aren’t very concerned about deaths from old age. I think public concern depends heavily on how the issue is framed. My prediction is that if effective anti-aging therapies became available and proven successful, most people would eagerly purchase them for high sums, and there would be widespread political support to subsidize those technologies.
Right now explicit support for anti-aging research is indeed politically very limited, but that’s partly because robust anti-aging technologies haven’t been clearly demonstrated yet. Medical technologies that have proven effective at slowing aging (even if not labeled as such) have generally been marketed as conventional medical technologies and typically enjoy widespread political support and funding.
I think I mostly agree with your comment and partially update, the absolute revealed caring about older people living longer is substantial.
One way to frame the question is “how much does society care about children and younger adults dying vs people living to 130”. I think people’s stated preferences would be something like 5-10x for the children / younger adults (at least for their children while they are dying of aging) but I don’t think this will clearly show itself in healthcare spending prioritization which is all over the place.
Random other slightly related point: if we’re looking at societal wide revealed preference based on things like spending, then “preservation of the current government power structures” is actually quite substantial and pushes toward society caring more about AIs gaining control (and overthrowing the us government, at least de facto). I don’t think a per person preference utilitarian style view should care much about this to be clear.
I agree that the amount of funding explicitly designated for anti-aging research is very low, which suggests society doesn’t prioritize curing aging as a social goal. However, I think your overall conclusion is significantly overstated. A very large fraction of conventional medical research specifically targets health and lifespan improvements for older people, even though it isn’t labeled explicitly as “anti-aging.”
Biologically, aging isn’t a single condition but rather the cumulative result of multiple factors and accumulated damage over time. For example, anti-smoking campaigns were essentially efforts to slow aging by reducing damage to smokers’ bodies—particularly their lungs—even though these campaigns were presented primarily as life-saving measures rather than “anti-aging” initiatives. Similarly, society invests a substantial amount of time and resources in mitigating biological damage caused by air pollution and obesity.
Considering this broader understanding of aging, it seems exaggerated to claim that people aren’t very concerned about deaths from old age. I think public concern depends heavily on how the issue is framed. My prediction is that if effective anti-aging therapies became available and proven successful, most people would eagerly purchase them for high sums, and there would be widespread political support to subsidize those technologies.
Right now explicit support for anti-aging research is indeed politically very limited, but that’s partly because robust anti-aging technologies haven’t been clearly demonstrated yet. Medical technologies that have proven effective at slowing aging (even if not labeled as such) have generally been marketed as conventional medical technologies and typically enjoy widespread political support and funding.
I think I mostly agree with your comment and partially update, the absolute revealed caring about older people living longer is substantial.
One way to frame the question is “how much does society care about children and younger adults dying vs people living to 130”. I think people’s stated preferences would be something like 5-10x for the children / younger adults (at least for their children while they are dying of aging) but I don’t think this will clearly show itself in healthcare spending prioritization which is all over the place.
Random other slightly related point: if we’re looking at societal wide revealed preference based on things like spending, then “preservation of the current government power structures” is actually quite substantial and pushes toward society caring more about AIs gaining control (and overthrowing the us government, at least de facto). I don’t think a per person preference utilitarian style view should care much about this to be clear.