FWIW, Hanson has elsewhere promoted the idea that algorithmic progress is primarily due to hardware progress. Relevant passage:
Maybe there are always lots of decent ideas for better algorithms, but most are hard to explore because of limited computer hardware. As hardware gets better, more new ideas can be explored, and some of them turn out to improve on the prior best algorithms. This story seems to at least roughly fit what I’ve heard about the process of algorithm design.
So he presumably would endorse the claim that HLMI will likely requires several tens of OOM more compute than we currently have, but that a plateauing in other inputs (such as AI researchers) won’t be as relevant. (Here’s also another post of Hanson where he endorses a somewhat related claim that we should expect exponential increases in hardware to translate to ~linear social impact and rate of automation.)
FWIW, Hanson has elsewhere promoted the idea that algorithmic progress is primarily due to hardware progress. Relevant passage:
So he presumably would endorse the claim that HLMI will likely requires several tens of OOM more compute than we currently have, but that a plateauing in other inputs (such as AI researchers) won’t be as relevant. (Here’s also another post of Hanson where he endorses a somewhat related claim that we should expect exponential increases in hardware to translate to ~linear social impact and rate of automation.)