Excellent points, and of course it is situation dependent—if one makes erroneous predictions on archived forms of communication, e.g. these posts, then yes these predictions can come back to haunt you, but often, especially in non-archived communications, people will remember the correct predictions and forget the false ones. It should go without saying that I do not intend to be overconfident on LW—if I was going to be, then the last thing I would do is announce this intention!
In a strange way, I seem to want to hold three different beliefs:
1) An accurate assessment of what will happen, for planning my own actions.
2) A confidant, stopping just short of arrogant, belief in my predictions for impressing non-rationalists.
3) An unshakeable belief in my own invincibility, so that psychosomatic effects keep me healthy.
Unfortunately, this kinda sounds like “I want to have multiple personality disorder”.
Excellent points, and of course it is situation dependent—if one makes erroneous predictions on archived forms of communication, e.g. these posts, then yes these predictions can come back to haunt you, but often, especially in non-archived communications, people will remember the correct predictions and forget the false ones. It should go without saying that I do not intend to be overconfident on LW—if I was going to be, then the last thing I would do is announce this intention! In a strange way, I seem to want to hold three different beliefs: 1) An accurate assessment of what will happen, for planning my own actions. 2) A confidant, stopping just short of arrogant, belief in my predictions for impressing non-rationalists. 3) An unshakeable belief in my own invincibility, so that psychosomatic effects keep me healthy.
Unfortunately, this kinda sounds like “I want to have multiple personality disorder”.
If you’re going to go that route, at least research it first. For example:
http://healthymultiplicity.com/
Thanks for the advice, but I don’t actually want to have multiple personality disorder—I was just drawing an analogy.