Was cold war NATO willing to retaliate “in full force” against an attack on a non-member?
If Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons in a limited theater, It seems to me that, given the West’s reticence, it may seem reasonable to expect from it a similarly limited, local retaliation.
Even if it’s not a certainty, Putin may be weighing such risks against the risk of what will happen to him if he is ousted from power (this idea speaks to me because it’s simple, mundane fear, it does not require Putin being about to keel over and looking for a dramatic end). Die the death of a deposed tsar = die in nuclear war, you’re dead either way. Maybe the latter is even better, as it’ll be more impersonal. As long as you’re selfish and amoral (which Putin obviously is), the fact that this is “bad for Russia” (let alone the world) won’t stop him.
Was cold war NATO willing to retaliate “in full force” against an attack on a non-member?
If Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons in a limited theater, It seems to me that, given the West’s reticence, it may seem reasonable to expect from it a similarly limited, local retaliation.
Even if it’s not a certainty, Putin may be weighing such risks against the risk of what will happen to him if he is ousted from power (this idea speaks to me because it’s simple, mundane fear, it does not require Putin being about to keel over and looking for a dramatic end). Die the death of a deposed tsar = die in nuclear war, you’re dead either way. Maybe the latter is even better, as it’ll be more impersonal. As long as you’re selfish and amoral (which Putin obviously is), the fact that this is “bad for Russia” (let alone the world) won’t stop him.