Yes, in updating my family on today’s news I told them that P(WW3) increased in non-trivial ways today—based on mostly similar observations.
There is also a bit more to your point #2 - not only the West does not consider this annexation legitimate, but it also makes any scenario where the fighting stops with Russia maintaining control over these territories less acceptable to the West (and Ukraine), so the path to any pieceful resolution of the conflict just became that much narrower. And that in turn leaves more avenues open for things to escalate.
5b—yes, 2020 amendments to the constitution of Russian Federation included adding the following paragraph to article 67:
2.1. Российская Федерация обеспечивает защиту своего суверенитета и территориальной целостности. Действия (за исключением делимитации, демаркации, редемаркации государственной границы Российской Федерации с сопредельными государствами), направленные на отчуждение части территории Российской Федерации, а также призывы к таким действиям не допускаются.
Rough translation (I am a native Russian speaker born in Moscow leaving in US):
2.1. Russian Federation unsures the protection of its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Actions (excluding delimitation and demarcation of the national border of Russian Federation with the neighboring states) aimed at alienation of a part of the territory of Russian Federation, or appeals for such actions are prohibited.
Note the “appeals” part in the end—it would make it nearly impossible for any Russian officials to even discuss the possibility of reversing the annexations...
Yes, in updating my family on today’s news I told them that P(WW3) increased in non-trivial ways today—based on mostly similar observations.
There is also a bit more to your point #2 - not only the West does not consider this annexation legitimate, but it also makes any scenario where the fighting stops with Russia maintaining control over these territories less acceptable to the West (and Ukraine), so the path to any pieceful resolution of the conflict just became that much narrower. And that in turn leaves more avenues open for things to escalate.
5b—yes, 2020 amendments to the constitution of Russian Federation included adding the following paragraph to article 67:
2.1. Российская Федерация обеспечивает защиту своего суверенитета и территориальной целостности. Действия (за исключением делимитации, демаркации, редемаркации государственной границы Российской Федерации с сопредельными государствами), направленные на отчуждение части территории Российской Федерации, а также призывы к таким действиям не допускаются.
Rough translation (I am a native Russian speaker born in Moscow leaving in US): 2.1. Russian Federation unsures the protection of its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Actions (excluding delimitation and demarcation of the national border of Russian Federation with the neighboring states) aimed at alienation of a part of the territory of Russian Federation, or appeals for such actions are prohibited.
Note the “appeals” part in the end—it would make it nearly impossible for any Russian officials to even discuss the possibility of reversing the annexations...