You’re essentially saying, even if a general policy is widely supported, it’s practically impossible to implement any specific version of that policy? Why would that be true?
Banning nuclear weapons is exactly like this. If it could be done universally and effectively, it would be great, but any specific version seems likely to tilt the balance of power without accomplishing the goal.
I think a better alternative to “nobody fund PauseAI, and nobody make an alternative version they like better” would be “there are 10+ orgs all trying to pause AI and they all have somewhat different goals but they’re all generally pushing in the direction of pausing AI”. I think in the latter scenario you are reasonably likely to get some decent policies put into place even if they’re not my favorite.
That’s kind-of what happened with the anti-nuclear movement, but it ended up doing lots of harm because the things that could be stopped were the good ones!
That’s kind-of what happened with the anti-nuclear movement, but it ended up doing lots of harm because the things that could be stopped were the good ones!
The global stockpile of nuclear weapons is down 6x since its peak in 1986. Hard to attribute causality but if the anti-nuclear movement played a part in that, then I’d say it was net positive.
(My guess is it’s more attributable to the collapse of the Soviet Union than to anything else, but the anti-nuclear movement probably still played some nonzero role)
I’m sure it played some nonzero role, but is it anything like enough of an impact, and enough of a role to compensate for all the marginal harms of global warming because of stopping deployment of nuclear power (which they are definitely largely responsible for)?
Banning nuclear weapons is exactly like this. If it could be done universally and effectively, it would be great, but any specific version seems likely to tilt the balance of power without accomplishing the goal.
That’s kind-of what happened with the anti-nuclear movement, but it ended up doing lots of harm because the things that could be stopped were the good ones!
The global stockpile of nuclear weapons is down 6x since its peak in 1986. Hard to attribute causality but if the anti-nuclear movement played a part in that, then I’d say it was net positive.
(My guess is it’s more attributable to the collapse of the Soviet Union than to anything else, but the anti-nuclear movement probably still played some nonzero role)
I’m sure it played some nonzero role, but is it anything like enough of an impact, and enough of a role to compensate for all the marginal harms of global warming because of stopping deployment of nuclear power (which they are definitely largely responsible for)?